I'll Tag It!!

I am not really that into making money from online. I know I’m not a promising sales force(at least for now), with a quick talking skill and making people somehow loosing their consciousness on any logical senses about their own very needs (I’m hiperbolizing here). Even in offline world I am still struggling to impersonate my wife to buy me a Stratocaster complete with JCM900 set and effects (you wish!) ). But I found online business is quite tempting after I get in touch with Google Adsense. It’s not that I don’t know before, but it was until now I had a chance to interact with AdSense. The idea is simply as much as we know how this online advertising works. It works like this (from Google AdSense):
1. Choose where to show ads => Specify where you want ads to appear =>Choose what types of ads can compete for those slots bid.
2. Highest-paying ads display => Advertisers bid on your inventory in a real-time auction => Always show the highest-paying ad get paid.
3. Get paid => Google bills advertisers and ad networks => Get paid through our reliable payment options.

Sounds nice and easy wouldn’t it? And one more thing, it’s free!. Let the money be your slave, all humankind’s dream. We do not really have to care about the targeted marketing campaign of Google. They have their own way to do so.

But, it does not mean that you can easily do it. Google has to make sure that your site is important enough to their marketing strategy. You have to prove that your site is important enough for their clients. It’s the essence of targeted marketing. What happened is that Google could not accept my application as it does not meet their requirement. Here are some important points we need to consider before we apply for Google AdSense. I summarize from the rejection response I got.

================================

Problem:
– Language Not Supported
– Page type

———————

More details:
Not Supported languages.
– Google can not approve the content of a site that uses language that is not fully supported for AdSense features that you’re proposing. Support language and targeting ads to the languages ​​are listed here.
– Important Note: If the language on your site is the Indonesian language, you must send application in Indonesian application environment. It helps their marketing team to match with marketing cluster in their database. Their team will immediately re-check the suitability of your application to their program policies.

Page type
– To be able to participate in Google AdSense, site
your page and the information sent in the application must meet
following guidelines:
– You must have a level site with top level domain.
( www.example.com and not www.example.com/yoursite ).
– You must provide your personal information is accurate with the application according to the registration information for your domain.
– Your website should contain a lot of original content.
– Your site must be in accordance with the Google AdSense program policies.

Well, it is just another way of saying that having famous website is important, and mine is not famous enough.

We know already bout what happened to Apple’s Steve Job’s current health. What is seemingly intriguing to me is the impact of his condition to what happened on the stock floor. According to the SEC’s Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), public companies are required to disclose “material information” to all investors simultaneously. Obviously, this rule attempts to limit insider trading that occurred because of the information leak that might lead to action imbalances due to information asymmetry of selective disclosure. The disclosure of SJ’s health made Apple shares plumed to $192.24 from May 2008. Following to the story, rumors over the need to have SEC further investigation arises. The question is, does Apple screw up the investors with this health information? Here comes accounting practice on materiality and disclosure to play the role. From my viewpoint, determining whether Apple violates the rule should be considered from two consecutive factor, putting aside that the information is potentially misleading (validity). First, identify the level of materiality and second, examine what level of disclosure taken to respond the materiality.

Materiality

The definition of “material information” is somewhat subjective, but it’s essentially anything that investors would likely thing as important driving forces on every investment decision will be taken. In Apple case, though materiality is quite subjective, it’s more black and white conclusion that its disclosure cousin. Anything that has substantial effect on corporate’s earning, and off course eventually owner’s wealth, is material. And to me, for company like Apply, SJ figure is determining, hence material to accounting reporting. Bottom line, if you’re not sure, disclose it. Ok, done with materiality. Did Apple disclose it? sure they did..but how they disclose?…let’s jump to disclosure.

Disclosure

Disclosing a particular information is more tricky than materiality. Say you wanna disclose this health problem to the dance floor, but in what ways?. Article by Steve Tobak from bnet.com provides a nice way of doing disclosure in one sentence, “how long can a company keep material information confidential before it leaks?”. So, if company feels that the leak to become reality is highly likely, it better discloses the information sooner than later. But be careful not to think that disclosure should be done after the information is leak. I’m not saying that disclosure equivalent with the leak of information. So, question should be posed first is whether leak takes place in relation to SJ’s email to his employee? if yes, is it intentional? The answer should be seen to the action that follows the leak. If the time the leak precedes the disclosure is long,than violation of Reg FD happens. But if the disclosure is issued immediately, Apple’s hand should be clean. Anyone wants to comment?

A nice article I saw from bnet.com

Who Is Nouriel Roubini?
By Alice C. Chen
published on BNET.com 1/05/2009

Is economist Nouriel Roubini a prophet or a perpetual pessimist who happened to get it right? In 2004, the New York University professor started to see disturbing trends he thought would lead to a crippling U.S. recession and a global slowdown. While other economists echoed his view at times, Roubini was the most consistent and bearish, even when his predictions failed to happen. So, most mainstream economists dismissed him simply as a perma-bear.
Five years after his initial warnings, he’s one of the most sought-after advisers in the world, strategizing with entities like Congress and international finance ministries.
Key Stats
• Name: Nouriel Roubini
• Also known as: “Dr. Doom”
• Age: 50
• Profession: NYU economics professor, co-founder of the economic-analysis firm RGE Monitor.
• Why he matters: Since 2004, Roubini has been the most pessimistic — and most accurate — predictor of the economic crisis. People ignored him then. They don’t anymore.

His Predictions
While other economists thought the real estate bubble would burst, they didn’t realize the extent of the devastation because housing is only about 6 percent of America’s GDP. Roubini, however, was one of the few who saw the link between housing and consumer spending, which makes up more than 70 percent of the U.S. GDP and about 25 percent of the world’s purchases of goods and services. As real estate prices soared, consumers used home equity loans to finance more expenditures.“(T)he only way you can liquefy your wealth is by using your home as your ATM machine, and that is exactly what has happened in the last few years,” Roubini told an audience at the International Monetary Foundation in 2006.

Roubini also saw the makings of a massive, global trade imbalance. The U.S. was borrowing from China to purchase Chinese goods. China was buying commodities from Latin America and the Middle East to produce those goods. If China experienced any internal disruptions and it stopped financing the U.S., the dollar would devalue, consumer spending would drop, and a global economic slowdown would result.

Bottom line: America was borrowing from other countries to fund consumption and housing rather than productive investments that create exportable goods and services. Roubini concluded the trend was unsustainable. “The bursting of the housing bubble is going to lead to broader systemic banking problems,” he told the IMF audience. “The rest of the world is not going to be able to decouple from the U.S. even if it is not going to experience an outright recession like the United States.”

His Method
While many economists rely mostly on rigorous econometric formulas, Roubini assumes that quantitative methods alone can’t explain unprecedented moves in the global economy. So, he adds a heavy dose of intuition, historical analogies, and circumstantial observation to his work. He derives most of his forecasts from simple data like supply-and-demand models and ratios of home price versus rent and home price versus income. Other economists use computers to crunch data, but Roubini uses his brain, says Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at Roubini’s firm RGE Monitor. His nontechnical framework has been likened to those used by noted economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. And Roubini told the New York Times that Alan Greenspan and John Maynard Keynes have influenced his methodology. His approach to economics isn’t radical, but his style can be considered flamboyant, says Brad Setser, who co-wrote a book with Roubini and is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Center for Geoeconomics. A recent Roubini blog post illustrates the point: “(T)hese Bush hypocrites who spewed for years the glory of unfettered wild west laissez faire jungle capitalism allowed the biggest debt bubble ever to fester without any control (and) have caused
the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

The Debate
Anirvan Banerji, director of research at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, praises Roubini for correctly capturing the nature of the crisis but points out that his timing was repeatedly off. What if the Fed had adjusted interest rates or businesses stopped hiring based on impending recessions that didn’t occur?
But, Darrell Duffee, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, says timing is not so important. “His skeptical commentary has been very, very useful,” says Duffee, who added that Roubini’s warnings were meant to straighten out the financial sector. Indeed, in November 2004, Roubini warned on his blog, “(S)erious financial distress from unsustainable fiscal and current account deficits cannot be ruled out.”
Banerji also criticizes Roubini for changing his justifications for the recession as he kept missing the timing. First it was the trade deficit, then oil price shocks, then the housing downturn, and finally the credit crisis, Banerji says. “There’s something lacking in terms of understanding what triggered the recession,” he adds.
Supporters argue that Roubini emphasized different vulnerabilities but his overarching argument remained the same. “The U.S. wasn’t borrowing from the world to finance productive investment (and) that process would end badly,” says Setser.

His Solution
Roubini expects things to get worse before they get better and predicts the recession will last at least until the end of 2009. In general, he advocates for the government to stabilize the economy through monetary and fiscal policy. Here are his recommendations to stop the credit crisis:
• Temporarily freeze all foreclosures.
• Create massive fiscal stimulus packages of at least $400 billion for public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, and tax rebates to lower-income households. Provide grants to state and local governments in dire need of funding.
• Coordinate interest-rate cuts globally.
• Temporarily insure all bank deposits. Allow insolvent banks to shut down and partially nationalize solvent but distressed banks.
• Open credit lines to solvent financial institutions and companies.
• Inject money into banks by buying equity.
• Coordinate a global effort to gradually adjust trade imbalances.
Policy makers around the world have heeded most of Roubini’s suggestions. Hopefully the one who saw it all coming sees the correct solution as well.